How Elections Are Won

Democracies around the world are under increasing pressure. Authoritarian forces are gaining influence, political polarization is intensifying, and the conditions for running successful election campaigns are rapidly changing. Against this backdrop, how can democratic, progressive parties win elections while defending liberal democracy?

These questions are at the heart of our new study, How Elections Are Won: A Comparative Analysis of Centre-Left Successes in Europe and North America, published on 8 July 2026.

The study examines seven recent election campaigns across Europe and North America, including New York City, Canada, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Copenhagen, to identify the strategic, organizational, and communication choices that helped centre-left parties achieve electoral success.

Despite significant political, social, and institutional differences, the findings reveal striking common patterns. Successful centre-left candidates and parties projected credible renewal, distinguished themselves not only from their political competitors but, in some cases, from the political establishment itself, and focused on a small number of clear, core priorities, particularly practical solutions to rising living costs. Across nearly all of the campaigns examined, affordability, including the cost of housing, energy, and everyday living, emerged as a defining campaign issue.

Together with invited experts, we will discuss the study's findings and explore what progressive democratic forces can learn from these recent electoral successes.
 

Following the presentation of the study, we will discuss with: 

• Dr. Fabio Ellger, author of the study, WZB Berlin
• Alexandra Geese, Member of the European Parliament, Greens/EFA
• Joshua Yaffa, Writer-in-Residence at Bard College Berlin and staff writer for The New Yorker

Moderator: Prof. Dr. Sebastian Bukow, Heinrich Böll Foundation and University of Trier
 

Speaker Biographies

Dr. Fabio Ellger

Dr. Fabio Ellger is a researcher at the WZB Berlin Social Science Center in the research group Transformations of Democracy, led by Daniel Ziblatt. His research focuses on comparative politics and political behaviour, with particular emphasis on the challenges facing modern democracies, democratic representation, political participation, and voter mobilization.

Prof. Dr. Sebastian Bukow

Prof. Dr. Sebastian Bukow is Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Trier and Head of Politics and Party Research at the Heinrich Böll Foundation. His research focuses on contemporary domestic politics, political parties and party competition, representative democracy, and political communication.

Contact
Claudia Rothe
Policy Advisor, European Union
Heinrich Böll Foundation, Berlin
E rothe@boell.de
 

Venue
Heinrich Böll Foundation
Schumannstraße 8
10117 Berlin