Turkey Breakfast Briefings: Turkish Rise, Russian Decline?

On August 8, 2025, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev initialed a peace agreement at the White House during a ceremony hosted by U.S. President Donald Trump. The agreement aims to end the decades-long conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. It was accompanied by the signing of a trilateral declaration that includes the reopening of transport routes and the establishment of a “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP)” through Armenia, connecting Azerbaijan with its exclave Nakhichevan. The negotiations coincided with steps toward normalizing the historically strained relations between Armenia and Turkey, which had stagnated for 15 years due to Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan in the Karabakh conflict.

These developments point to a shift in the geopolitical balance in the South Caucasus, with Turkey emerging as a key regional actor while Russia - the region’s traditionally dominant power - loses influence. At the same time, they mark a triumph of “authoritarian peace making” following Azerbaijan’s military victory in the Karabakh conflict, after decades of attempts to resolve the dispute through OSCE-mediated negotiations and civil society reconciliation initiatives (“liberal peacemaking”).

Against this backdrop, the Heinrich Böll Foundation invites discussion of these questions in a Turkey Breakfast Briefing:

• Has the geopolitical status quo in the South Caucasus shifted permanently in favor of Turkey, displacing Russia as the leading regional power?
• Is the opening of the Turkish-Armenian border now imminent?
• How are these developments affecting the close partnership between Turkey and Azerbaijan?
• What role are the United States playing under President Donald Trump in reshaping the regional balance of power?
• How are Russia and Iran responding?
• What are Germany's and the European Union's interests, and what means of influence remain available to them?

We will discuss these questions with the following guests:

• Arzu Geybulla, Azerbaijani columnist and writer focused on digital authoritarianism, human rights, and press freedom
• Prof. Dr. Pinar Sayan, Associate Professor and Vice Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences, Beykoz University
• Arsen Kharatyan, founder and editor-in-chief of AliQ Media, Armenia

Moderation: Walter Kaufmann, Head of Eastern and South Eastern Europe Division, Heinrich Böll Foundation Berlin

Welcoming remarks: Dr. Dawid Bartelt, Head of Office, Heinrich Böll Foundation Istanbul

The Turkey Breakfast Briefings are closed, in-person expert discussions where invited participants exchange views with experts over breakfast under the Chatham House Rule. Participation is by invitation only.

This conversation will take place in English without simultaneous translation. 

Contact: 
Deitra Myers
Division European Union and North America
E myers@boell.de

» Participation on site
 at the the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Conference Center, Schumannstr. 8, 10117 Berlin

Please register in advance. Unfortunately, the number of seats for this event are limited.