International Workshop on Scenarios for Israel/Palestine in 2034

Closed expert workshop, participation upon invitation only, registration necessary.

Agenda

Panel 1: Scenarios for Israel in 2034
Lead Questions:

1. How will the 7 October massacres and the Gaza war affect Israel's political, economic and societal development in the short, mid and long term (i.e. by 2034)?
2. How might the political map change after the war and which ideas and dis-courses will gain mobilization potential?
3. In which ways will the judicial overhaul and attempts at reordering state-society and state-religion relations resurface and which developments would that entail?
4. How will demographic developments determine (or not) political, economic and social trends?

Panel 2: Scenarios for Palestine in 2034
Lead Questions

1. How will the 7 October massacres and the Gaza war affect Palestine’s political, economic and societal development in the short, mid and long term (i.e. by 2034)?
2. What are scenarios for the future of the PA and Palestinian succession? What are opportunities and threats of a leadership transition?
3. What are scenarios for overcoming (or not) the intra-Palestinian split and a return to (more) democratic rule (within Palestine)?
4. What political actors beyond the PA and established factions are emerging? Which political ideas and strategies are gaining mobilisation potential? Which actors will be influential in which domain? How are they linked to the occupation and the intra-Palestinian split (or not)?

Panel 3: Scenarios for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in 2034
Lead questions:

1. How will the 7 October massacres and the Gaza war affect conflict dynamics? What are scenarios for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in 2034?
2. How will internal dynamics in Israel and Palestine affect conflict dynamics?
3. How will the policy of de facto annexation influence perceptions of the conflict and strategies of the actors? How will discourses on the conflict develop in both societies?
4. Which conflict resolution or management strategies will be gaining support and political effectiveness?

Panel 4: Scenarios for the regional and international environment in 2034
Lead Questions

1. How will the 7 October massacres and the Gaza war affect regional conflict dynamics?
2. What are scenarios for the regional and international environment in which the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is situated? What are wild cards that should be considered?
3. What opportunities and risks for conflict regulation do regional and geopolitical developments, such as the Abraham Accords and other processes of normalization, realignments and a more multipolar order, entail?
4. What is the role of third parties and international organizations and how can leverage be used effectively? Which organizations and formats will play a role?
5. What will be dominant discourses on the conflict in the international scene?

Panel 5: Conclusions and policy recommendations
Lead Questions

1. What are scenarios policy-makers should prepare for? What are wild cards?
2. What are measures that should be adopted (or refrained from) today to influence developments constructively and avoid unwanted outcomes?
3. What are opportunities that should be made use of?
4. Who are potential domestic, regional and international partners in which endeavors?