Rethinking Turkish Foreign Policy - New Approaches to Relations with the EU, Russia and the Middle East

On its web page, the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs begins its synopsis of its Foreign Policy (TFP) by stating that “developments show that international legitimacy, economic interdependence, respect for human rights, pursuing a sustainable environmental policy and harmony between people belonging to different religious and ethnic origins stand as the most important tools to build lasting peace, stability and prosperity”. This extraordinary process, it is argued, also shapes the basic foreign policy issues of Turkey. In a region where the impact of global changes are greatest, the Ministry defines TFP as dynamic and visionary, multi-dimensional, constructive, proactive, realistic and responsible, and based on the intention to steer developments in a positive direction for realizing its national and international goals.
Yet, those who tried to decipher TFP in the last years, where often left at a loss, how the above stated goals could be reached. In this period, Turkey constructed stronger bonds with its neighbors, which contributed among other things to the expansion of the country’s soft-power influence in the region: Guided by this principle, Turkey supported a U.N. plan to unify the long-divided island of Cyprus; came close to mending its rift with Armenia and opening their shared border; mediated between Israel and Syria; and built productive economic relations with almost every neighbor. Yet, parallel to the changes brought about in the region with the Arab Spring and its repercussions, Turkey has lost most of this new won influence in the Middle East. Especially the situation in Syria, not only put the country in conflicting positions with its traditional Western allies as well as with Russia and Iran, but also affected the internal conflict with its Kurdish population and produced security challenges for Turkey both at home and abroad.
Faced with a myriad of challenges Turkey started in mid-2016 to reorient its foreign policy. The change started by making amends with Russia and Israel, and continued by shifting priorities in Syria. However while Turkey is leaning stronger towards real politics, there is still uncertainty how Turkey’s role in the region will develop. Regional dynamics, such as the Kurdish question, have changed and not in Turkey’s favor, trust has been lost among many of its traditional allies and the newfound alliances have crumbled since 2011. While the relation with Russia has been restored, the partnership seems not to be one of equals. The relationship with the US is strained both by their refusal to extradite Fetullah Gülen and by Obama’s course in Syria. While the EU has struck a refugee deal with Turkey, relations remain tense, with both the Turkish government and the EU displaying no appetite to revive long dormant EU accession negotiations in earnest. Stumbling blocks such as the future of Turkish democracy, as well as discussion on visa-liberalization add to uncertainty about future relations with the EU, as does the tendency on both sides to use sharp rhetoric for short term populist goals at home.
Under these circumstances the panel will discuss opportunities and challenges for re-charting this new course of TFP with a special emphasis on the relationships with Russia, the Middle East (esp. Syria) and the EU.

 

For the full program of the conference: http://www.istanbulguvenlikkonferansi.org/index.php/en/